Commercial/Multi-Family Lending To Hit $1T In 2022

Total commercial and multifamily mortgage lending is expected to break $1 trillion for the first time in 2022, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association…(MBA)

• This 13% increase from the $900 billion estimated in 2021.

Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Vice President for Commercial Real Estate Research, said this increase is directly tied to the increase in values

• “Commercial real estate lending volumes are closely tied to the values of the underlying properties. In 2021 those values rose by more than 20 percent, and those increases will fuel further demand for mortgage debt in the coming years…”

COUNTERPOINT: J. Scott Scheel, just a few weeks ago, predicted on Fox News that commercial real estate would soon experience a blood bath of 2008 proportions…(Fox News)

• “…certainly all of your hospitality has been devastated throughout this pandemic and over the course of last couple of years that in and of itself is going to cause massive defaults…So that’s going to be a huge crisis in and of itself. And then obviously, we know that the banks, when they start to take on defaulted assets, they’re not really in a position to make loans. And so, so many of those assets that did stabilize but have now been hurt are going to be hamstrung by their balance sheets because 3 years of historic operating statements won’t really be there to support new debt with values plummeting.”

NOTE: The Wall Street Journal reported that so far only an average of 33% of the workforce has returned to the office during the first week of February in the 10 major cities they surveyed…(WSJ)