Two-month Home Price Slide Biggest Since ’09
Home prices in July and August saw the biggest decline since January 2009 despite inventory levels stalling out in August, according to Black Knight’s mortgage monitor report.
- M-O-M: The Black Knight Home Price Index had home prices sliding .98% in August, this slightly better than the 1.05% decline in July. The two-month slide is the largest since January 2009 and is the eighth biggest on record.
- Y-O-Y: Home prices are still up 12.1% from the same time last year due to the record growth seen in late 2021 and early 2022.
Over $8k. The average home price is now down 2% ($8.8K) from its June peak nationally. Annual home price growth is expected to continue falling as we enter the five-month stretch between September through January when home prices historically tend to face more neutral to negative seasonal pressure.
- While the vast majority if markets have fallen very little, hotter markets in the West have seen bigger drops. San Jose leads the way with a 13%, or $203,000, drop followed by San Francisco (-10.8%/-$137K) and Seattle (-9.9%/-$82.5K).
Delinquencies Down. Despite concern for the housing market, it appears that homeowners have never been in a better position. The drop in past-due mortgage payments was broad-based with the number of borrowers with a single payment past due falling 4% and 90-day delinquencies falling 4.5% to a low not seen since April 2020.
- The national delinquency rate fell 10 basis points in August to 2.79%, just 4 bips off the record low set in May of this year.
BOTTOM LINE: Home prices may be beginning to fall but homeowners have never been in a better position financially to handle the pullback.
