Inflation Expectations Fell to a 31-Month Low

Consumer short-term expectations about inflation fell to a 31-month low in November, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

• Median one-year ahead inflation expectations declined to 3.4% in November, down from 3.6% in October and the lowest reading since April 2021.

• Median inflation expectations at the three- and five-year ahead horizons remained unchanged at 3.0% and 2.7%, respectively.

Home Price Growth. Median home price growth expectations were unchanged for the second consecutive month at 3.0%, down just 0.1 percentage points from the high this year and up from the 1.0% reading at the same time last year.

Wage Growth. Median expected growth in household income was unchanged at 3.1% in November, down from the 4.5% reading last year that was close to the all-time peak.

• The pre-pandemic series level was around 2.7% in February 2020