Private Payrolls Disappoint to Start 2024

Private payrolls failed to meet expectations to start 2024, according to the latest ADP Employment Report.

• Private sector employment increased by 107,000 jobs in January, down from 158,000 in December and the second worst in the last 7 months.

• Economists were projecting a higher 148,000 jobs created.

Leisure & Hospitality. Leading job growth in January was Leisure and Hospitality with 28,000 new jobs followed by Trade, Transportation, & Utilities (+23k) and Construction (+22k).

• On the flip side, the information sector lost 9,000 jobs in January.

Pay. Year-over-year pay gains for job-stayers reached 5.2 percent in January, down from 5.4% in December. For job-changers, pay was up 7.2%, the smallest annual gain since May 2021.

Analysis. Nela Richardson, Chief Economist at ADP, said by all accounts it loks like we are headed for a soft landing “Progress on inflation has brightened the economic picture despite a slowdown in hiring and pay. Wages adjusted for inflation have improved over the past six months, and the economy looks like it’s headed toward a soft landing in the U.S. and globally.”