Consumer confidence has dropped to its second-lowest level in the past 12 months, according to the latest report from The Conference Board. The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 100.4 in June, down from 101.3 in May, marking the second-lowest reading in 18 months.
Future Concerns: Present Situation Index rose to 141.5, reflecting improved current business and labor market conditions. However, the expectations Index fell to 73.0, indicating a decline in consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions.
Demographic insights
- Aged 35-54: Notable drop in confidence between May and June.
- Under 35 and 55+: Slight improvement in confidence this month.
- Income groups: No clear pattern emerged.
On a six-month moving average basis, confidence remains highest among the youngest consumers (under 35) and the wealthiest (earning over $100K).
What They’re Saying: “Confidence pulled back in June but remained within the same narrow range that’s held throughout the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “Strength in current labor market views continued to outweigh concerns about the future. However, if material weaknesses in the labor market appear, confidence could weaken as the year progresses.”
The Bottom Line: Despite the dip in June, consumer confidence remains relatively stable, sustained by positive views on current labor market conditions. However, potential weaknesses in the labor market could pose risks to confidence levels in the coming months.