Retail sales in July surged 1.0%, significantly outperforming predictions and rebounding from a 0.2% decline in June, according to the latest data from the Census Bureau. The increase brings total seasonally adjusted sales to $709.7 billion
- The 1.0% rise marked the largest monthly jump since January 2023.
- Sales are now up 2.7% year-over-year, a marked improvement from June’s 2.0%, and the highest level since April.
Auto Leads The Way: Auto dealerships led the charge with a significant 3.6% increase in sales, followed by electronics stores, which posted a 1.6% rise, and grocery stores, which saw a 1.0% bump. These gains helped offset declines in other categories.
- Despite the overall rise, some sectors struggled. Online retailers experienced the steepest drop, with sales falling 2.5%, while sporting goods stores saw a 0.7% decline and department stores dipped slightly by 0.1%.
What They’re Saying: Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal noted on Twitter “Retail sales and WalMart earnings/guidance better than expected, jobless claims lower … whatever your recession probability was yesterday, you should lower it today.”
Market Reaction: The 10-year treasury jumped 10 basis points after the release. The CME Fed watch tool moved the change of fed rate cut in Septemeber of 25 basis points to 75% from 50% just one day ago.
