For the first time in nearly a year, business activity in New York has shown signs of growth, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Index. The headline general business conditions index surged 16 points to 11.5 in September, rebounding from -4.7 in August and marking the highest level since April 2022.
- This sharp increase defied economists’ predictions of a more modest rise to -3.9, signaling stronger-than-expected economic momentum.
Key indicators painted a positive picture of manufacturing activity. The new orders index posted a dramatic 17-point jump to 9.4, reaching a multi-year high. Similarly, the shipments index surged 18 points to 17.9, its highest reading in approximately 18 months.
- Inventories also showed improvement, rising by 11 points to 0.0 after two months in negative territory, suggesting that businesses are finally seeing stability in their stock levels.
- However, the labor market remains a weak spot. The index for the number of employees remained negative at -5.7, signaling continued, albeit modest, job reductions in the sector.
Optimism: Despite the current employment challenges, there is optimism for the future. The index for future business conditions climbed eight points to 30.6, with nearly half of respondents expecting improved conditions over the next six months. This rising confidence could pave the way for a more robust recovery in the near term.
Bottom Line: As the manufacturing sector shows signs of life, these latest numbers indicate that New York’s business environment may be poised for a broader recovery, offering a glimpse of hope for the state and national economy after months of contraction.
