As the 2024 presidential election approaches, housing costs have emerged as a critical issue, especially in key battleground states. A recent article in The Washington Post by Abha Bhattarai and Federica Cocco, titled “Housing costs are rising everywhere — but especially in swing states,” spotlights the role of housing affordability in shaping political landscapes. Even more noteworthy, Wilmington, North Carolina, has become a focal point in this conversation, offering a microcosm of how rising housing costs could sway voter sentiment in the coming election.
Swing State Price Surge: Bhattarai and Cocco highlight a multiyear surge in home prices that has hit swing states the hardest, noting that the housing affordability crisis could heavily influence the outcome of the 2024 presidential race. These states, where the margin of victory is often slim, are home to voters who feel the pressure of increasing housing costs more acutely than those in other parts of the country. And Wilmington, NC, serves as a prime example of this trend.
- In Wilmington, a coastal tourist town near North Carolina’s southern border, home prices have soared. Over the past five years, they have increased by 65%, reshaping the local real estate market and putting financial strain on residents.
- Rental prices have followed a similar trend in surrounding New Hanover County, rising by 35% over the same period—nearly double the national average of 19%, according to The Washington Post’s analysis.
Top Concern: Interviews conducted by Bhattarai and Cocco with over 40 residents of Wilmington reveal a community where the conversation around housing affordability is unavoidable. For many, rising rents, home prices, property taxes, and insurance are now the dominant economic concerns, overshadowing other issues like inflation or job opportunities.
- The strain of rising housing costs is evident. Many Wilmington residents are spending over half of their take-home pay on housing, leaving limited resources for essentials like food and fuel. This squeeze on budgets has created a sense of economic insecurity, which could drive voter behavior in a state that has often determined the direction of national elections.
- As Bhattarai and Cocco point out, the issue extends beyond Wilmington, reflecting similar pressures in swing states where housing costs are outpacing the national average.
Bottom Line: New Hanover County, where Wilmington is located, has already proven its significance in previous elections. It was among the top ten counties identified in 2020 as potential indicators of the national election outcome. The ongoing housing affordability crisis in this area suggests that New Hanover could once again be a bellwether county in 2024.
