The long-discussed “silver tsunami”—a wave of homes becoming available as older homeowners downsize—has been viewed as a potential solution to the housing crisis. However, new research from Zillow reveals that this influx of homes is unlikely to solve affordability challenges.
Potential Solution: In 2022, there were 20.9 million empty-nest households nationwide, defined as homeowners over 55 who have lived in the same home for over a decade, have no children at home, and at least two extra bedrooms. This outpaces the 8.1 million families living with nonrelatives who likely need their own housing.
The Problem: Despite the apparent surplus, the distribution of empty-nest homes undermines their potential impact. Empty-nest households are primarily concentrated in lower-cost markets like Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Cleveland, and Detroit.
- Younger generations seeking homes are flocking to expensive metros such as San Jose, Austin, and Denver. Housing affordability in these cities is far more strained, with limited inventory and high demand creating persistent challenges.
What They’re Saying: “Even if we did see a ‘silver tsunami,’ a look at the map tells me it wouldn’t really move the needle in terms of solving our housing affordability crunch,” said Orphe Divounguy, Zillow senior economist.
Bottom Line: The housing crisis isn’t just about increasing supply; it’s about ensuring the right supply in high-demand areas. Without efforts to build affordable housing where demand is highest, the silver tsunami will offer little relief to those struggling with affordability.
