The U.S. national debt surged by $624 billion just two months into fiscal year 2025, reflecting a significant fiscal strain as spending continues to outpace revenue. The federal government spent $1.25 trillion while bringing in only $628 billion, leaving a stark budgetary shortfall.
- The November deficit of $366 billion dwarfed October’s $257 billion, setting an aggressive pace for fiscal year 2025. By comparison, the first two months of fiscal year 2024 saw a cumulative deficit of $380 billion.
- The U.S. ultimately ended 2024 with a $1.8 trillion deficit, raising concerns that 2025 could surpass even that record.
2023 Impacts: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) attributed part of the surge to timing adjustments in federal outlays and revenues. Certain federal payments typically due on October 1, 2023, were pushed forward to September because October 1 fell on a Sunday. Conversely, payments scheduled for December 1, 2024, fell on a Saturday and were processed in November.
- Without these timing effects, the deficit for fiscal year 2025 thus far would have been $541 billion—still $88 billion higher than at this point last year. Outlays, adjusted for timing, would have been $38 billion higher than during the same period in fiscal year 2024.
Bottom Line: With $624 billion already added to the national debt and the fiscal year barely underway, fiscal year 2025 is shaping up to be another year of considerable deficits. Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have their work cut out for them.
