Home prices, for the first time in over a year, saw price growth slow, according to the latest date from the Case-Shiller index…(Case-Shiller)
- Y-O-Y: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 19.5% annual gain in September which is slightly down from the 19.8% reported the previous month.
- M-O-M: The U.S. National Index posted a 1.0% month-over-month increase in September which is also down from the 1.2% growth reported in August.
Growth seems to be slowing quicker in the bigger cities as the 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 17.8%, down from 18.6% in the previous month.
- Month-over-month growth for the 10-city composite was up 0.7% in September which is also slightly lower than the 0.8% reported in August.
Phoenix continues to lead the way, despite a slight 0.2% drop in growth, with a 33.1% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a
27.7% increase and Miami with a 25.2% increase.
Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI, reiterated the questions surrounding the continued surge in demand for housing…
- “We have previously suggested that the strength in the U.S. housing market is being driven by households’ reaction to the COVID pandemic, as potential buyers move from urban apartments to suburban homes. More data will be required to understand whether this demand surge represents simply an acceleration of purchases that would have occurred over the next several years, or reflects a secular change in locational preferences. September’s report is consistent with either explanation.”
FYI: Bill McBride, from the Calculated Risk blog, told me at the end of June, “My guess is the YoY peak will be before the August report (Case-Shiller is a 3-month average, so it really lags).” He was right!
Speaking of slowing growth, FHFA’s quarterly HPI also came out today and while price growth did increase from Q2, it was lower than the peak we saw in July…(FHFA)
- U.S. house prices rose 18.5% in the third quarter of 2021 when compared to Q3 2020. This is up from the 17.4% annual growth we saw in Q2, but it is down from the peak of 19.2% we saw in July.
- Home prices were up 4.2% quarter-over-quarter which is a smaller increase than the reported 4.9% growth in Q2.
Regionally, the Mountain region was up the most with a reported 25.01% year-over-year increase followed by the Pacific (+20.9%) and the South Atlantic (+20.14%)
- Looking at the states, Idaho was number one with a reported 35.81% year-over-year jump followed by Utah(+30.27%), Arizona (+27.65%), Montana (+26.04%), and Florida (+24.78%).
