Consumer confidence fell to a four-year low as concerns over the future plummeted, according to the latest data from the Conference Board.
- The Consumer Confidence Index fell by to 92.9 in March, down 7.2 points from February and the lowest level since February 2021.
- This was slightly worse than the 94 economists were projecting.
12-Year Low: The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell to 65.2 in March, down almost 10 points from February and is now at the lowest level in 12 years and is well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.
- The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell just 3.6 points to 134.5 in March.
Breaking It Down: March’s fall in confidence was driven by consumers over 55 years old and, to a lesser extent, those between 35 and 55 years old. On the flip side, confidence rose slightly among consumers under 35 thanks to an uptick in their assessments of the present situation more than offset gloomier expectations.
- The decline was also broad-based across income groups, with the only exception being households earning more than $125,000 a year.
What They’re Saying: Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board, noted that consumer confidence declined for a fourth consecutive month in March, “falling below the relatively narrow range that had prevailed since 2022.”
- Guichard also noted this was pretty much across the board. “Of the Index’s five components, only consumers’ assessment of present labor market conditions improved, albeit slightly.”
Bottom Line: Uncertainty about tariffs and government spending continues to worry consumers. Until this fog clears it is unlikely consumers are going to feel better about the economy.