For the first time in almost two years, home price growth fell into the single digits, according to the October Case-Shiller index.
- Y-O-Y: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 9.2% annual gain in October, down from 10.7% in the previous month and the lowest level since November 2020 when the index was also at 9.2%.
- M-O-M: The U.S. National Index posted a -0.5% month-over-month decrease in October, this was smaller than the 1.0% drop reported in September and the smallest drop since July.
Slowing Slow Down. Economists thought the 20-city composite growth was going to slow to 8.2% but it actually slowed to 8.6% in October.
Florida Still Hot. Florida is the only state with a city still reporting growth over 20% and they have two of them. Miami took the top spot with 21.0% year-over-year growth followed by Tampa (+20.5%) and Charlotte (+15.0%).
- The Southeast (+17.9%) and South (+17.0%) were the strongest regions by far, with gains more than double those of the Northeast, Midwest, and West
- San Fransico is now only up 0.6% year-over-year, down from 2.3% in September. It looks very likely that San Fran will end the year in negative territory
Analysis. Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI, noted that even though home prices are up year-over-year they are down from the mid-summer peak. “The National Composite Index fell -0.5% for the month, reflecting a -3.0% decline since the market peaked in June 2022…As the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates higher, mortgage financing continues to be a headwind for home prices. Given the continuing prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, prices may well continue to weaken.”
