Home price growth fell for the fifth straight month and is now at the lowest level since 2020, according to the latest Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
- Y-O-Y: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 7.7% annual gain in November, down from 9.2% in the previous month and now at the lowest level since September 2020.
- M-O-M: The U.S. National Index fell 0.6% in November, up from the 0.5% drop the previous month and the fifth month in a row of month-over-month declines.
Hit The Nail On The Head. Economists hit the nail on the head predicting that the 20-city composite index would fall to 6.8%, down from 8.6% the previous month.
Florida Is Cooling. For the first time since February 2021, not one single major metro area reported price growth over 20.0%. Miami slowed to a still impressive 18.4% year-over-year gain in November followed by Tampa (+16.9%) and Atlanta (+12.7%).
- The Southeast (+15.1%) continues to be the strongest region while the West (+4.0%) continues to be the weakest.
First Decline. San Francisco went negative for the first time since 2019 as home prices in the bay area fell 1.6% year-over-year. This is the first negative result for any city since San Francisco’s -0.4% decline in October 2019 and this is the worst year-over-year result for San Francisco in more than 10 years (-3.0% in March 2012).
Analysis. Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI, says home prices still have room to fall. “As the Federal Reserve moves interest rates higher, mortgage financing continues to be a headwind for home prices. Economic weakness, including the possibility of a recession, would also constrain potential buyers. Given these prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to weaken.”
