Homebuilder confidence declined for the fourth straight month in April, falling to its lowest level since November 2023, according to the latest Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders.
- The index slipped one point to 38, reflecting a growing sense of caution in the industry as rising costs and policy uncertainty take hold.
- Regionally, confidence was mixed. The Northeast saw the steepest drop, falling five points to 43. In contrast, the Midwest rose five points to 43, and the West inched up one point to 35.
The national index would have dropped further if not for a slight boost in present sales and prospective buyer traffic, which rose two points and one point, respectively. This pushed the overall composite to 40 in April.
- However, expectations for sales over the next six months tumbled by four points to 43 — also the lowest reading since November 2023.
What They’re Saying: NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said tariffs are already making an impact. “The April HMI data indicates that the tariff cost effect is already taking hold, with the majority of builders reporting cost increases on building materials due to tariffs.”
- Dietz added that policy uncertainty is making it harder for builders to accurately price homes or make long-term business decisions.
- On average, suppliers have increased prices by 6.3% in response to announced or expected tariffs, translating into roughly $10,900 in added costs per home.
Bottom line: Homebuilders are feeling the pinch from rising costs, and the uncertainty surrounding future tariffs is starting to erode confidence in the housing market’s near-term outlook.