Reversing a three-week trend initial jobless claims surprised many by jumping up for the week, according to the latest data from the Department of Labor (DOL)
- Seasonally adjusted initial claims were 412,000, an increase of 37,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The 4-week moving average was 395,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised average.
- The states with the largest increases were Illinois (+5,715), Ohio (+2,296), Delaware (+1,720), and Tennessee (+1,159). Meanwhile,the states with the largest decreases were in Pennsylvania (-23,633), California (-19,120), Oklahoma (-3,788), Texas (-3,299), and New Jersey (-2,985).
Overall, insured unemployment during the week ending June 5 was 3,518,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
- The 4-week moving average was 3,603,750, a decrease of 55,000 from the previous week’s revised average.
Economists, for the most part, are not worried. For now…
- Ann Elizabeth Konkel, an economist at job search site Indeed.com, told WSJ that a slight rise n jobless claims should not be cause for concern yet. She argues that “The big picture is that while we are not back to a ‘normal’ level yet of initial claims, they are no longer astronomically high.” (WSJ)
- Jerome Powell, The Federal Reserve Chairman, addressed the slow recovery in the jobs market. “Factors related to the pandemic, such as caregiving needs, ongoing fears of the virus, and unemployment insurance payments appear to be weighing on employment growth…These factors should wane in coming months against a backdrop of rising vaccinations leading to more rapid gains in employment.”
We still have over 7 million jobs to go before we reach the employment levels of the pre-pandemic economy. I think Powell is correct that our economy is still not universally back to normal. However, if by the end of the summer we are still seeing weak job reports. It might be time to look at some policy changes.
