Inventory levels saw a 1.0% uptick this week but it could be all down here from here, according to the latest data from Altos Research.
- Inventory levels rose 1.0% to 566,000, this was the fourth time in the last five weeks that inventory levels were up week-over-week.
- Mike Simonsen, CEO of Altos Research, said that “No time in the past decade or more has inventory kept rising in late October.” Simonsen is projecting that inventory levels will end the year at about 490,000.
Bearish Signal. Inventory isn’t expected to rise but if it does Simonsen writes that “If inventory keeps rising next week and beyond, that’ll be increasingly bearish signal for home prices in 2023.”
Home Prices. The median price of single-family homes in the US is down just under 1% this week to $430,000which Altos believes that home prices will keep falling and start the year around $400k.
- Mike Simonsen argues that even though inventory levels have peaked, price cuts have not. Price cuts were up to 42% for the week with Simonsen arguing that “The peak in price cuts will be the measure of how motivated sellers really are before 2023”
BOTTOM LINE: Altos has been spot on every time inventory levels have changed. If they are right about this, I’m pretty sure they will be the undisputed champ of inventory levels.