Friday is the big day this week as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, is due out. Economists expect the PCE to show consumer prices rising 0.2% in April, bringing annual inflation down slightly to 2.2%. Additionally, personal income is projected to have increased by 0.4% last month, though consumer spending is anticipated to have grown by a modest 0.1%, signaling potentially cautious behavior among consumers. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment, according to the University of Michigan’s closely watched survey, is forecast to fall to 50.8. This will come on the heels of the consumer confidence report which is also expected to reflect declining optimism, dropping to 84, further highlighting the cautious mood of American households amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
Other Notables:
Tuesday: Durable goods orders are expected to have fallen 6.8% in April, which would be the biggest drop since January 2024. Case-Shiller is expected to show home price growth slowing to 4.2% in March, the lowest level since October 2024
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
Thursday: 2nd Estimate for GDP growth in Q1 is expected to hold at -0.3% and jobless claims are expected to rise slightly to 230k, and pending home sales are expected to have fallen 1.5% in April
