Monday
We kick the week off at 5:00 AM with some inflation data from the Euro Area that is expected show price growth slowing to 2.3% in February. In the US, ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to have risen slightly to 51 in February. A little later in the morning, construction spending is expected to have slowed to 0.2% to start 2025.
Tuesday
The Bureau of Labor Statistics noted on its website that “as part of its regular annual process, the release of January 2025 estimates on March 11, 2025, will incorporate the annual updates to the Current Employment Statistics employment estimates and the JOLTS seasonal adjustment factors.” So the JOLTS report is slightly delayed compared to other labor market reports.
Wednesday
Private payrolls are expected to have grown by 140,000 jobs in February. If true, February would be the worst month since July of last year. At 10:00 AM, ISM Services PMI is expected to remain mostly unchanged and we’ll get mortgage demand and rate data early in the morning.
Thursday
The European Central Bank’s rate decision will be the big story of the day as they are expected to lower rates to 2.65%, down from the current 2.9% and the lowest level since January 2023. Jobless claims are expected to rise for the third straight week to 250,000, that would be the highest level since early October. The trade deficit is expected to fall to -$93.1B, which would still be the second highest level in the last 3 years. Mortgage rates, from Freddie Mac, are out at noon.
Friday
Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 155,000 in February. If true, that would be up from the previous month. Unemployment is expected to hold at 4.0% while hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.3% with year-over-year earnings growth expected to hold at 4.1%. Honorable mention: Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, will speak At The University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum. Early in the morning, Europe’s final look at Q4 is expected to show growth barely rising at just 0.1%.
